WadiOnline News - ADCO Expects Growth In Demand

ADCO expects growth in demand

Publish Date: 2010-02-09 03:00:13 Story Code: 25125

Abu Dhabi�s onshore oil company expects world oil demand to increase at a significantly faster rate in two decades than international experts have forecast, a prediction that lies at the heart of the firm�s aggressive expansion plans.

World oil consumption will jump 38 per cent in 20 years, forcing oil suppliers to boost the efficiency of their output at existing oilfields, said Abdul Munim al Kindy, the general manager of the Abu Dhabi Company for Onshore Oil Operations (ADCO), a subsidiary of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), which pumps about half of the emirate�s crude.

�The increase in demand for oil will escalate from about 87 million bpd [barrels per day] to more than 120 million bpd in 20 years,� he said at a conference in Abu Dhabi. �There is a need to find new supplies.�

ADNOC�s demand forecasts form the basis of its plans to increase production capacity by almost 25 per cent before the end of the decade, to 3.5 million bpd. ADCO alone wants to raise output capacity to 1.8 million bpd by 2017, from 1.4 million bpd currently.

Globally, the bulk of new oil supply will come from further development of existing fields and better management of expected declines in output, experts agree. The number of major oil finds has steadily fallen in the past several decades, since most regions that are likely to have deposits have already been investigated by the international oil companies.

Mr al Kindy�s forecast for consumption is higher than the predictions of OPEC, which puts consumption at 105.6 million bpd in 2030, and the International Energy Agency (IEA), which expects that consumption will reach 105 million bpd that year, if current consumption trends continue.

Tony Hayward, the chief executive of BP, said last week that global oil consumption was likely to peak at between 95 million and 110 million bpd, and begin declining by 2030.

If global leaders are able to agree to strict limits on fossil fuels as part of an international treaty on climate change, world oil demand in 2030 could be held to 89 million bpd, says the IEA, which represents the interests of industrialised countries. OPEC has not put forward a definite forecast for such a scenario, but has said the effect on oil demand of a strict climate treaty �is likely to be significant�.

Both the IEA and OPEC agree that all of the growth in consumption will come from developing countries, including China and India. Oil use in industrialised countries is likely to have peaked as a result of slower population growth, improving energy efficiency and policy measures to reduce oil consumption.

* additional reporting by Tamsin Carlisle

© The National 2010. All rights reserved.

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Source: The National
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